Assessing the impacts of climate change on peri-urban land use in Nigeria. A study of Ibeju-Lekki LGA, Lagos State

Authors

  • Chinenye Lilian Okafor Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainable Developmen, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0911-2645
  • Olusola Ebenezer Orebiyi Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainable Development, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos
  • Raimot Titilade Akanmu entre for Environmental Studies and Sustainable Development, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2074-9425
  • Sandra Oluwaseyi Omonubi Department of Surveying and Geoinformatics, University of Lagos, Lagos

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6093/1970-9870/11525

Keywords:

Climate change, Land Use and Land Cover;, GIS, Peri-Urban, Flooding

Abstract

The study investigated the impact of climate change on land use dynamics in the peri-urban region of Nigeria, focusing on Ibeju-Lekki Local Government Area (L.G.A.) in Lagos State. Integrating both primary and secondary data, the study deployed a structured questionnaire which was administered among 125 respondents across three peri-urban communities in Ibeju-Lekki: Imobido, Idaso, and Ilege. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, alongside Landsat 7 and 8 imagery, were used for comprehensive land use and land cover (LULC) analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was employed to quantify temporal changes in vegetation cover, revealing notable shifts in land use patterns. Findings underscore significant LULC changes within Ibeju-Lekki, reflecting the extensive influence of climate change on land management and urban planning in rapidly urbanizing peri-urban areas. The study highlights the necessity for integrated, adaptive land use policies that address climate-induced challenges and promote sustainable development. These insights offer policy recommendations aimed at enhancing resilience in land use systems, fostering a model for sustainable urban expansion in similar coastal communities. 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Chinenye Lilian Okafor, Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainable Developmen, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos

She is currently a Research Fellow at the Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability Development, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos Nigeria where she teaches and supervises Post-Graduate Diploma and Masters’ student courses in Climate Change, Research Methods, Transport and Environment interactions. She is also a Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Industrial Engineering, Stellenbosch University South Africa. Her research interests span across climate change, transport and environmental interactions and decarbonizing the transport sector through green energy transitions, she has published several journal articles, book chapters and international conference proceedings in environment and transport related journals. 

Olusola Ebenezer Orebiyi, Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainable Development, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos

He is a registered surveyor with the Lagos State Government of Nigeria with academic strong practical background spanning over two decades. He holds a master’s degree in environmental resource management and a prospective PhD. candidate at the Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability Development, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos Nigeria. 

Raimot Titilade Akanmu, entre for Environmental Studies and Sustainable Development, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos

She is a Research Fellow at Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability Development, Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos Nigeria. Her specialisation is in climate change impact on marine ecology, resources and conservation, Sustainability of environmental resources and management. Her articles are published in both Environmental, Sustainability, and biological science-related Journals. She is a member of the Association of Science for Limnology and Oceanography, Nigerian Environmental Society, Fisheries Society of Nigeria and Phycological Society of Nigeria. 

Sandra Oluwaseyi Omonubi, Department of Surveying and Geoinformatics, University of Lagos, Lagos

She is a Surveying and Geoinformatics professional with a strong academic and practical background. She is a Registered Surveyor and has just concluded her master’s program the department of Surveying and Geoinformatics, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos Nigeria. With hands-on experience spanning over a decade, she has served in various capacities including her current position as Senior Surveyor I at the New Towns Development Authority (NTDA) where she is committed to contributing to sustainable infrastructure development through excellence in geospatial solutions. 

References

Abd El-Kawy, O. R., Rød, J. K., Ismail, H. A., & Suliman, A. S. (2011). Land use and land cover change detection in the western Nile delta of Egypt using remote sensing data. Applied Geography, 31 (2), 483-494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.10.012

Abija, F. A., Abam, T. K., Teme, S. C., & Eze, C. L. (2020). Relative sea level rise, coastline variability and coastal erosion in the Niger Delta, Nigeria: Implications for climate change adaptation and coastal zone management. Journal of Earth Science and Climatic Change 11(9).

Adebisi, N. O., Osammor, J. & Oyedele, K. F. (2016). Nature and engineering characteristics of foundation soils in Ibeju Lekki area of Lagos, southwestern Nigeria. Ife Journal of Science, 18 (1), 029-042. https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ijs/article/view/148191

Adedire, F. M., & Adegbile, M. B. O. (2018). Effects of urbanization on spatial demography change in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos peri-urban settlement. Community Development, 49 (3), 292–311. https://doi.org/10.1080/15575330.2018.1466822

Adelekan, I. O. (2010). Vulnerability of poor urban coastal communities to flooding in Lagos, Nigeria. Environment & Urbanization, 22(2), 433-450. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247810380141

Adeyinka, S. A., Omisore, E. O., Olawuni, P. O., & Abegunde, A. A. (2006, October 8–13). An evaluation of informal sector activities and urban land use management in South Western Nigeria. In Shaping the Change: XXIII FIG Congress (Munich, Germany). International Federation of Surveyors (FIG). https://fig.net/resources/proceedings/fig_proceedings/fig2006/papers/ts35/ts35_02_adeyinka_etal_0641.pdf

Adewale, P. S., Akanmu, R. T., & Okafor, C. L. (2024). Agriculture greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation: Assessing the disposition of Nigerian urban farmers. Daffodil International University Journal of Science and Technology, 19 (2). http://dspace.daffodilvarsity.edu.bd:8080/handle/123456789/13340

Ahove, M. A., Okebukola, P. A., & Okafor, C. L. (2021). Development of a climate change anxiety instrument: What is your heartbeat reading? International Journal of Weather, Climate Change and Conservation Research, 7 (1), 13-25. https://www.eajournals.org/wp-content/uploads/Development-of-a-Climate-Change-Anxiety-Instrument.pdf

Ajibade, I. (2017). Can a future city enhance urban resilience and sustainability? A political ecology analysis of Eko Atlantic city, Nigeria. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 26, 85-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.029

Akiyode, O. (2024). The implications of climate variability and change on urban water security of Lagos mega-city, Nigeria: A narrative review. SPC Journal of Environmental Sciences, 6 (1), 19-25. https://doi.org/10.14419/rz6aen85

Anderson, J. R., Hardy, E. E., Roach, J. T., & Witmer, R. E. (1976). A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data. USGS Professional Paper. https://doi.org/10.3133/pp964

Assede, E. S. P., Orou, H., Biaou, S. S. H., Geldenhuys, C. J., Ahononga, F. C., & Chirwa, P. W. (2023). Understanding drivers of land use and land cover change in Africa: A review. Current Landscape Ecology Reports, 8 (2), 62-72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40823-023-00087-w

Bid, S. (2016). Change detection of vegetation cover by NDVI technique on catchment area of the Panchet Hill Dam, India. International Journal of Research in Geography (IJRG), 2(3), 11-20. https://doi.org/10.20431/2454-8685.0203002

Boglietti, S., Nota, M., & Tiboni, M. (2024). The exploration of tactical urbanism as a strategy for adapting to climate change. The "SpaziAttivi" program in the city of Brescia. TeMA - Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, (3), 169-180. https://doi.org/10.6093/1970-9870/10920

Choukri, R. S., Ghodbani, T., & Salem, M. (2024). Monitoring agricultural land changes in peri-urban Oran, Algeria: A mixed methods analysis. The Journal of Engineering and Exact Sciences, 10 (6), 19598. https://doi.org/10.18540/jcecvl10iss6pp19598

Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Sutton, P., van der Ploeg, S., Anderson, S. J., Kubiszewski, I., Farber, S. & Turner, R. K. (2014). Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change, 26, 152-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002

Crippen, R. E. (1990). Calculating the vegetation index faster. Remote Sensing of Environment, 34 (1), 71-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(90)90085-z

Dahanayake, H. D., Dahanayaka, D., Hudson, P., & Wickramasinghe, D. (2024). Land use changes of coastal wetlands using remote sensing. A case study of Muthurajawela & Anawilundawa wetlands, Sri Lanka. TeMA - Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, 17 (1), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.6093/1970-9870/10281

Effiong, C., Ngang, E., & Ekott, I. (2024). Land use planning and climate change adaptation in river-dependent communities in Nigeria. Environmental Development, 49, 100970. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2024.100970

Folorunso, S.S., Muhammed, L., Adekunle, W., & Raheem, A. (2024). Assessment of population and urban growth using exponential growth model: A case study of Ibeju-Lekki Local Government Area, Lagos State. International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics (IJEGEO), 11 (2), 10-17. https://doi.org/10.30897/ijegeo.1373666

Grimm, N. B., Faeth, S. H., Golubiewski, N. E., Redman, C. L., Wu, J., Bai, X., & Briggs, J. M. (2008). Global change and the ecology of cities. Science, 319 (5864), 756-760. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1150195

Hassan, Z., Shabbir, R., Ahmad, S. S., Malik, A. H., Aziz, N., Butt, A., & Erum, S. (2016). Dynamics of land use and land cover change (LULCC) using geospatial techniques: A case study of Islamabad Pakistan. SpringerPlus, 5 (1), 812. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-2414-z

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC.

Kebede, T., Eyasu, A., Abebe, M., N. Ayanad, A., Alemayehu, A., & Mengistf, M. (2024). Farmers decision on land use land cover change from agriculture to forest and factors affecting their decision: the case of Gurage Zone, Central Ethiopia. TeMA - Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, 17 (3), 453–472. https://doi.org/10.6093/1970-9870/10936

Lambin, E. F., & Meyfroidt, P. (2010). Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change. Land Use Policy, 27 (2), 108-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.09.003

Leitão, A. B., & Ahern, J. (2002). Applying landscape ecological concepts and metrics in sustainable landscape planning. Landscape and Urban Planning, 59 (2), 65-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2046(02)00005-1

Luederitz, C., Brink, E., Gralla, F., Hermelingmeier, V., Meyer, M., Niven, L., Panzer, L., Partelow, S., Rau, A.-L., Sasaki, R., Abson, D., Lang, D., Wamsler, C., & von Wehrden, H. (2015). A review of urban ecosystem services: six key challenges for future research. Ecosystem Services, 14, 98-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.05.001

Molla, M. B., Gelebo, G., & Girma, G. (2024). Urban expansion and agricultural land loss: A GIS-based analysis and policy implications in Hawassa city, Ethiopia. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 12, 1499804. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1499804

Ndimele, P. E., Ojewole, A. E., Mekuleyi, G. O., Badmos, L. A., Agosu, C. M., Olatunbosun, E. S., Lawal, O. O., Shittu, J. A., Joseph, O. O., Ositimehin, K. M., Ndimele, F. C., Ojewole, C. O., Abdulganiy, I. O., & Ayodele, O. T. (2024). Vulnerability, resilience and adaptation of Lagos coastal communities to flooding. Earth Science Systems and Society, 4, 10087. https://doi.org/10.3389/esss.2024.10087

Nicholls, R. J., Hanson, S. E., Lowe, J. A., Warrick, R. A., Lu, X., Long, A. J., & Carter, T. R. (2011). Constructing sea-level scenarios for impact and adaptation assessment of coastal areas: A guidance document. Technical Guidelines of the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). https://www.ipcc-data.org/docs/TGICA_Sea_Level_Scenario_Guidance_Ver_1_2011.pdf

Nifosì, C., De Angelis, F., Choubassi, R., Gorrini, A., & Messa, F. (2024). Coastal roads atlas. Reshaping daily infrastructures for coastline adaptation. TeMA - Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, (3), 97-111. https://doi.org/10.6093/1970-9870/10917

Lenshie, N. E., Joshua, M. M., & Ezeibe, C. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic and informal women workers in peri-urban communities in Nigeria. Local Environment, 26(6), 754–769. https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2021.1923001

Ogundele, O. M., Rapheal, O. M., & Abiodun, A. M. (2018). Effects of municipal waste disposal methods on community health in Ibadan - Nigeria. Polytechnica, 1(1–2), 61–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41050-018-0008-y

Ogunlade, S. O., Uzoefuna, F. M., Oyewumi, E. G., & Fajimi, K. (2021). Mapping spatiotemporal dynamics of Akure industrial layout for sustainable development. International Journal of Current Science Research and Review, 4 (9), 1178-1188. https://doi.org/10.47191/ijcsrr/v4-i9-15

Ogunnaike, A., Squires, G., & Booth, C. A. (2013). A pluralistic conceptual model for affordable housing in Lagos, Nigeria. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment. https://doi.org/10.2495/sc130441

Okafor, C. L., Ahove, M. A., & Odewumi, S. G. (2025). Bottom-up determination of greenhouse gases emissions by commercial vehicles in Lagos: a quest to localized sustainable transportation. Transportation Research Procedia, 89, 86–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2025.05.049

Okeke, G. N. (2022). The Nigerian Perspective of Global Climate Change: A Case Study of Coastal Areas of Lagos. Open Journals of Environmental Research, 3(2), 38–53. https://doi.org/10.52417/ojer.v3i2.428

Olokeogun, O. S., Iyiola, K., & Iyiola, O. F. (2014). Application of remote sensing and GIS in land use/land cover mapping and change detection in Shasha forest reserve, Nigeria. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, XL–8, 613–616. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-xl-8-613-2014

Olomolatan, I. M., Tata, H., & Adeniran, A. S. (2024). Geo-spatial assessment of masterplan alteration of Ibeju-Lekki area of Lagos State. African Journal on Land Policy and Geospatial Sciences, 7 (1), 159-172. https://doi.org/10.48346/IMIST.PRSM/ajlp-gs.v7i1.42525

Onyeneke, R. U., Nwajiuba, C. A., Emenekwe, C. C., Nwajiuba, A., Onyeneke, C. J., Ohalete, P., & Uwazie, U. I. (2019). Climate change adaptation in Nigerian agricultural sector: A systematic review and resilience check of adaptation measures. AIMS Agriculture and Food, 4 (4), 967–1006. https://doi.org/10.3934/agrfood.2019.4.967

Pennino, S. (2024). Global warming or global warning? A review of urban practices for climate adaptation to urban flooding. TeMA - Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, 17(3), 517-524. https://doi.org/10.6093/1970-9870/11167

Pickett, S. T. A., Cadenasso, M. L., Grove, J. M., Nilon, C. H., Pouyat, R. V., Zipperer, W. C., & Costanza, R. (2001). Urban ecological systems: Linking terrestrial ecological, physical, and socioeconomic components of metropolitan areas. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 32, 127-157. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.32.081501.114012

Popoola, O. O. (2021). Spatio-temporal assessment of modifications to coastal marshes along the deltaic coast of Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Technology, 11(2), 165-180. https://journals.futa.edu.ng/papers/paper_5_1670610673.pdf

Popoola, O. O., Olajide, A., & Ajayi, D. B. (2018). Ecosystem services assessment for human well-being and poverty alleviation in the Ondo State coastal region, Nigeria. In O. B. Akinbamijo, E. E. Okoko, F. K. Omole, & O. O. Popoola (Eds.), The just city: Poverty, deprivation and alleviation strategies (pp. 96-113). YEMPET Prints Ltd.

Seto, K. C., Fragkias, M., Güneralp, B., & Reilly, M. K. (2011). A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion. PLoS ONE, 6(8), e23777. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0023777

Smith, K., & Ward, R. (1998). Floods: Physical processes and human impacts. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tacoli, C. (2003). The links between urban and rural development. Environment & Urbanization, 15 (1), 3-12. https://doi.org/10.1177/095624780301500111

Turner, R. K., Palmieri, M. G., & Luisetti, T. (2016). Lessons from the construction of a climate change adaptation plan: A Broads wetland case study. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 12 (4), 719-725. https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1774

Ubani, O., Jiburum, U., Sam-Amobi, C. & Egbenta, I. (2024). Determination of Factors Influencing Users’ Satisfaction with Urban Green Open Spaces in a sub-Sahara African City – Evidence from Enugu, Nigeria. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 13 (1):59-65. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720.482

Uddin, M. M., Schneider, P., Asif, M. R I.., Rahman, M. S., Arifuzzaman, & Mozumder, M. M. H. (2021). Fishery-based ecotourism in developing countries can enhance the social-ecological resilience of coastal fishers—A case study of Bangladesh. Water, 13 (3), 292. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030292

Varkey, A. M. (2019). A review of peri-urban definitions, land use changes and challenges to development. Urban India, 39 (1), 96-111. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Amrutha-Varkey/publication/352349285_A_Review_of_Peri-Urban_DefinitionsLand_Use_Changes_and_Challenges_to_Development/links/60c45885299bf1949f4e827f/A-Review-of-Peri-Urban-Definitions-Land-Use-Changes-and-Challenges-to-Development.pdf

Downloads

Published

31-12-2025

How to Cite

Okafor, C. L., Orebiyi, O. E., Akanmu, R. T., & Omonubi, S. O. (2025). Assessing the impacts of climate change on peri-urban land use in Nigeria. A study of Ibeju-Lekki LGA, Lagos State. TeMA - Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, 18(3), 359–379. https://doi.org/10.6093/1970-9870/11525

Issue

Vol. 18 No. 3 (2025): NEW CHALLENGES FOR XXI CENTURY CITIES: Multilevel scientific approach to impacts of global warming on urban areas, energy transition, optimisation of land use and emergency scenario 3

Section

Focus

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Chinenye Lilian Okafor, Olusola Ebenezer Orebiyi, Raimot Titilade Akanmu, Sandra Oluwaseyi Omonubi

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

  

Similar Articles

<< < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.