Analysis of factors affecting urban land use changes (1993-2023): a case study of Urmia City, Iran

Abstract

Urban land use changes are reshaping cities worldwide, often leading to environmental degradation and unsustainable development. In rapidly growing mid-sized cities like Urmia, Iran, these transformations have not been fully examined using integrated spatial and analytical approaches. This study analyzes land-use transformations (1993–2023) to identify critical drivers and propose sustainable management strategies. Using satellite imagery from four time points, land use was classified with high accuracy through ENVI, ArcGIS, and Google Earth, applying supervised methods such as Maximum Likelihood and Neural Network classification. To determine driving factors, expert input was evaluated using the Fuzzy Delphi method and factor analysis. Results reveal a 66% expansion of urban areas (4,631 to 7,698 ha), primarily at the expense of gardens, which declined by 56% (10,252 to 4,488 ha). Agricultural and barren lands fluctuated due to cultivation shifts and infrastructural encroachment. This study identifies six critical dimensions influencing land use changes: social, economic, living standards, technological, political, and cultural, using the Fuzzy Delphi method and factor analysis. These findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable urban planning, offering a data-driven foundation for managing urban sprawl and guiding future development in Urmia and similar cities.